A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
