Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
